As we pass the quarter mark of the 2025 MLB season, some teams have clearly outpaced preseason expectations. While the American League is shaping up to be a crowded playoff battlefield and perennial favorites like the Dodgers continue to overcome adversity, a few clubs with modest preseason playoff odds have surprised fans and analysts alike. But which of these hot starts can be trusted to last, and which are merely early-season flukes? We dive into the promising campaigns of five teams — led by the resurgent Detroit Tigers — and examine what lies ahead.
Detroit Tigers: A Roaring Resurgence
Entering the season with a modest 41.2% chance of making the playoffs, the Detroit Tigers have blasted away doubts, currently boasting a 31-17 record that has many wondering if this could be the best team in franchise history. Their offensive surge has been nothing short of spectacular — last season, Detroit managed 162 home runs over 162 games. This year, they’ve already blasted 60 homers in just 47 games, pacing toward a staggering 207 for the season. The team’s on-base percentage has jumped from a league-worst .300 last year to an impressive .333, leading to an increase in runs scored per game from 4.21 to 5.38.
Two former No. 1 picks, Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize, who struggled in 2024, have made dramatic improvements. Torkelson is already hitting 12 home runs with an elite RBI count, while Mize has transformed into a reliable starter with a 6-1 record and a 2.53 ERA. Adding to the excitement, Javier Baez, who nearly lost his spot last season, has found new life as a center fielder, hitting .291 and showing defensive versatility.
While some question the depth of the Tigers’ starting pitching and a lack of a true closer, their rotation ranks second in strikeout rate behind only the Philadelphia Phillies, and their bullpen, though unconventional with multiple pitchers sharing closing duties, has proven effective. Injuries to key players Matt Vierling and Parker Meadows have yet to derail Detroit’s momentum. As these players return, Manager A.J. Hinch will have even more tools to keep the lineup fresh and adaptable. Could this team reach the legendary heights of the 1984 Tigers, who won 104 games and the World Series? The current pace suggests a historic season. While 107 wins may be an overestimate, Detroit is shaping up as a legitimate 95-win contender — a clear sign this hot start is real.
St. Louis Cardinals: Hot Streak or Mirage?
The Cardinals entered the season with 33.9% playoff odds, and though they have performed above expectations, skepticism lingers. After a scorching 12-1 run in early May, highlighted by three shutouts and a 2.33 ERA, St. Louis appeared ready to challenge in the NL Central. Key contributors like Brendan Donovan, who’s hitting .330 with 15 doubles, and Ivan Herrera, recovering strong from injury, have sparked optimism.
However, the Cardinals’ pitching rotation raises red flags. Despite a respectable 3.64 ERA ranking eighth in MLB, their strikeout rates are troublingly low, with starters Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, and Miles Mikolas all averaging fewer than six strikeouts per nine innings. In today’s game, where strikeouts are crucial, this could limit their success over the long haul.
Offensively, the team’s power numbers are middling. While Victor Scott II and Masyn Winn provide solid OBPs, former top prospect Jordan Walker has struggled mightily, hitting just .189 with frequent strikeouts. The Cardinals’ inability to consistently generate power, combined with pitching limitations, makes it difficult to fully trust their current success.
Though the team’s 27-21 record and plus-38 run differential are impressive, the underlying metrics suggest the Cardinals may regress. For now, their playoff potential feels like more of a hopeful mirage than a sustainable reality.
San Francisco Giants: Bullpen Brilliance and Uneven Offense
The Giants started the year with just a 24.6% chance to reach the postseason, yet they currently sit with a solid 28-20 record, fueled largely by an elite bullpen. Relievers Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez, and Erik Miller have combined for a staggering 1.27 ERA and have held opponents to a .164 batting average in 78 innings. Their lockdown relief pitching has bailed out the Giants time and again.
Logan Webb is enjoying a career year as the ace, with a 2.42 ERA and a 27.4% strikeout rate. Wilmer Flores leads the majors with 42 RBIs despite a modest overall batting line, showing clutch hitting especially with runners in scoring position. The offense ranks third in OPS with runners on base but only 15th overall, highlighting some inconsistency.
Areas of concern remain. The starting rotation has uneven performances, with Justin Verlander still seeking his first win and Jordan Hicks struggling after moving out of the bullpen. The Giants’ first basemen are underperforming at the plate, and catchers rank near the bottom in OPS. Still, the bullpen’s dominance, combined with key offensive contributions, makes the Giants a team to watch. Their upcoming series against the Dodgers in June will be a crucial test of whether they can sustain their surprising run. For now, this hot start feels real, buoyed by a bullpen that could be one of the best in the league.
Cleveland Guardians: Overperforming but Unsustainable?
With only a 19% preseason playoff chance, the Guardians have surpassed expectations slightly at 25-21, but the success feels fragile. Their pitching staff has been the main source of their overperformance, allowing fewer runs than expected — an encouraging sign.
Hunter Gaddis, who posted a 1.78 ERA last season, continues to shine with a 1.00 ERA through 18 innings. Power hitter Kyle Manzardo is pacing toward 35 homers, effectively replacing the production of the recently traded Josh Naylor.
Yet, the pitching rotation ranks near the bottom in multiple categories, including ERA, strikeout rate, and innings pitched. Defensively, the team has regressed, and the offense struggles without consistent contributions from shortstop Brayan Rocchio. With injuries already impacting the rotation and an upcoming tough schedule, the Guardians’ current winning record seems unlikely to hold over a full 162-game season. They may remain competitive, but this hot start appears more like an overachievement than a lasting turnaround.
Oakland Athletics: Brief Glimmer Amid Struggles
With a slim 8.4% playoff chance, the Athletics briefly flirted with contention, even sitting just one game out of first place in the AL West after an early May win. Jacob Wilson has been a bright spot, hitting .337 with only 10 strikeouts in 188 plate appearances. However, inconsistency quickly set in. A brutal 2-9 stretch against strong teams revealed the Athletics’ weaknesses — especially their lack of frontline pitching and poor defense, ranking last in defensive runs saved.
Their struggles in blowout losses and shaky pitching depth suggest the A’s will find it difficult to sustain contention. Still, the AL West remains open, and with key players like Lawrence Butler and Nick Kurtz adjusting, Oakland could make a late-season push if they catch a hot streak.
As the 2025 MLB season unfolds, it’s clear some teams like the Tigers and Giants are demonstrating authentic potential, while others like the Cardinals and Guardians may be riding early hot streaks that are unlikely to last. The Athletics provide a wildcard, with flashes of promise amid struggles. Baseball fans should enjoy the exciting starts but remain cautious — the long season often tells a different story than early April’s hype.
