Can last season’s surprises stay hot? Which powerhouses are ready to stumble? The NFL’s unpredictability remains the only certainty, but we break down the over/under win totals for every team heading into the 2025 season.
Contenders and consistency: The usual suspects
Baltimore Ravens (11.5 – Over)
The Ravens remain a model of regular-season excellence under Lamar Jackson, with five double-digit win seasons in his six years. While postseason success has eluded them, there’s little reason to doubt they’ll surpass 11 wins yet again.
Buffalo Bills (11.5 – Over)
The reigning MVP Josh Allen gives Buffalo a solid floor, and while their offensive additions were minimal, a bolstered defense—featuring Joey Bosa and rookie CB Maxwell Hairston—should help keep them at the top of the AFC.
Philadelphia Eagles (11.5 – Over)
Despite some veteran losses, Philadelphia’s strong core—anchored by a dominant offensive line and the arrival of Saquon Barkley—should keep them among the NFC elite. Don’t be surprised if their younger players rise quickly to meet the moment.
Falling giants: Regression candidates
San Francisco 49ers (10.5 – Under)
This total may be overly optimistic. The 49ers lost key contributors and are relying on the health of aging stars like Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey. With a shaky defense and questions around Brandon Aiyuk’s return, they may fall short.
Kansas City Chiefs (11.5 – Under)
The Chiefs’ narrow wins and Super Bowl disappointment in 2024 suggest that they might be due for regression. With an older roster and no urgent need to chase the No. 1 seed, expect them to cruise rather than dominate.
Miami Dolphins (8.5 – Under)
Miami is stuck in the aftermath of past aggressive trades and faces serious offensive line concerns. With limited cap flexibility and a declining supporting cast, Tua Tagovailoa may struggle to keep this team competitive.
Rising stocks: Teams on the upswing
Jacksonville Jaguars (7.5 – Over)
A healthy Trevor Lawrence, bolstered by new coach Liam Coen and rookie sensation Travis Hunter, could put together his best season yet. There’s breakout potential here.
Minnesota Vikings (8.5 – Over)
Kevin O’Connell worked magic with Sam Darnold last season. With J.J. McCarthy under center and a retooled offensive line, Minnesota could exceed expectations once again.
Washington Commanders (9.5 – Over)
Coming off a surprising NFC title game run, Washington looks primed to build on that momentum. Jayden Daniels now has Deebo Samuel, and the defense gets a full year from Marshon Lattimore. A tough schedule looms, but so does talent.
Question marks and value bets
New York Jets (5.5 – Over)
The spotlight has shifted off the Jets, and that might be a blessing. Justin Fields has protection and promising weapons like rookie TE Mason Taylor. Quiet confidence could translate into surprise wins.
Las Vegas Raiders (6.5 – Over)
Pete Carroll and Geno Smith are back together in Vegas, and with Maxx Crosby anchoring the defense, this is a team that should comfortably clear six wins.
Los Angeles Chargers (9.5 – Over)
Jim Harbaugh delivered in Year 1, and now Justin Herbert has even more help with rookie RB Omarion Hampton and WR Tre Harris. Don’t sleep on the Bolts.
Under pressure: Teams facing steep cliffs
Cincinnati Bengals (9.5 – Under)
Burrow and Chase are elite, but the Bengals’ defense is their Achilles’ heel. With minimal upgrades on that side of the ball, this could be another underwhelming finish.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5 – Under)
Aging QB targets and banking on Aaron Rodgers at 41 is a risky formula. Even with DK Metcalf in the fold, Pittsburgh may not extend Mike Tomlin’s non-losing streak.
New England Patriots (8.5 – Under)
Drake Maye flashed potential, but this rebuild is still in its early stages. Despite Mike Vrabel’s presence, it’s hard to trust this team to suddenly turn it around.
Rebuilding and repositioning
Cleveland Browns (4.5 – Under)
A quarterback carousel involving Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Shedeur Sanders, and Dillon Gabriel suggests the Browns are still searching for direction. The under feels inevitable.
Tennessee Titans (5.5 – Under)
Rookie QB Cam Ward may offer flashes, but the Titans are still lacking in offensive cohesion. Brian Callahan’s first season in charge could be a tough one.
Carolina Panthers (6.5 – Over)
Dave Canales stabilized the Panthers in 2024. With smart additions on both sides of the ball, this young core could finally turn the corner in 2025.
Wildcard teams: Boom or bust potential
Denver Broncos (9.5 – Under)
Bo Nix was a revelation last year, but can he avoid the sophomore slump? With limited upgrades to the receiving corps and questions on defense, the Broncos may regress.
Dallas Cowboys (7.5 – Over)
The addition of George Pickens and solid investments in the trenches help, but this is a tough call. New coach Brian Schottenheimer faces a steep learning curve, but eight wins isn’t out of reach.
New York Giants (5.5 – Over)
Improved quarterback options and a rugged defensive front should be enough to clear this modest total—even if a playoff run is out of reach.
Playoff hopefuls or pretenders?
Detroit Lions (10.5 – Over)
Detroit’s physical identity remains intact under Dan Campbell. With elite line play and a deep roster, expect another double-digit win season—even without coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn.
Green Bay Packers (9.5 – Under)
The Packers’ draft strategy was puzzling. A glut of wide receivers and few defensive reinforcements may haunt them, especially if Jordan Love can’t elevate the offense.
Atlanta Falcons (7.5 – Over)
Michael Penix Jr. has shown promise, and the supporting cast is quietly excellent. If Penix takes the next step, the Falcons could challenge in the NFC South.
Arizona Cardinals (8.5 – Over)
Arizona is trending up under Jonathan Gannon, especially after landing key defensive pieces. If Kyler Murray rediscovers his confidence, the Cardinals could be dangerous.
Expect the unexpected
If there’s one rule in the NFL, it’s this: don’t expect the same story twice. Teams rise and fall with breathtaking speed, and no roster is safe from the chaos of a 17-game season. As we head into 2025, a few things are clear—Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen remain reliable, several young quarterbacks are poised to break out, and even the best-laid projections are bound to be torn apart by midseason. So buckle up, and enjoy the ride.
